2011 Gas Market Trends
The ‘shale revolution’ drove US natural gas prices lower in 2011, but oil-indexed contracts and the March earthquake in Japan meant pricier gas for the rest of the world.
The ‘shale revolution’ drove US natural gas prices lower in 2011, but oil-indexed contracts and the March earthquake in Japan meant pricier gas for the rest of the world.
State governments are increasingly flexing their regulatory muscle and mandating increased transparency around hydrofracking to allay public fears.
Gas prices maintain their stubborn streak, but drillers remain active with the US winter heating season set to begin late in Q4.
Compared to oil, gas has been rather low-key so far in 2011.
The recent deal represents the biggest investment to date by a Chinese company in the North American energy sector, appearing to balance demand to develop gas fields at a time when low commodity prices are not providing companies with enough cash flow efficiently. The agreement could underscore greater exposure for resource companies to eventually export shipments to offshore markets.
Poland’s reserves of shale gas may be as much as 3 trillion cubic meters, according to estimates by geologists and energy consultants, potentially making the country a net exporter of gas and reducing Europe’s dependence on Russia.
In recent history, gas prices have generally followed a relatively seasonal pattern with prices rising during the summer driving season and falling after Labor Day. However, 2010 has seen a reversal in this pattern; the national average price has risen by 30 cents per gallon since Labor Day, the largest increase over that period since the 1990 inception of Energy Information Agency (EIA) weekly published retail gasoline price data. The current average price range in the US for the third week of December of approximately $2.98 per gallon is the second highest on record, eclipsed only by the 2007 average price reaching $3.00 per gallon.
On Tuesday, Richard Bernstein, Chief Executive Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC (RBA) offered bullish commentary for the broader energy sector for 2011: “if the economy is indeed beginning to enter the mid-phase of the cycle, then energy and materials stocks begin to take leadership positions. We expect both global sectors to outperform in 2011.”
The comparatively high population density of Europe could mean that shale production will run into local opposition because of the way drilling might disrupt communities, and the way that prohibitions could target the pollution associated with drilling processes.
Suncor Energy Inc, Canada's largest energy company, has just announced that it has agreed to a transaction with Direct Energy to sell natural gas assets for about $358.5 million. The deal comes as part of Suncor’s strategic business alignment and ongoing plans to divest of a number of non-core assets totaling $2.8 billion.
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